GUEST POST: Our democracy is on the line in the states this November
Aaron Kleinman, Director of Research at The States Project and co-creator of Give Smart, makes the 'Moneyball' case for preventing the Kochs, Thiels, and DeVoses from stealing the 2024 election.
Pretend I’m Brad Pitt in Moneyball. I swear it’s not too much of a stretch. You’re the Oakland A’s, and you know that you won’t be able to outspend the Kochs, Thiels, and DeVoses. You have to find the most cost-effective way to compete with them.
Federal elections tend to attract the most attention, but as Director of Research at The States Project, I can assure you that state legislatures drive every issue you care about. From education to civil rights to gun safety — state lawmakers impact our daily lives.
This cycle, the future of American democracy as we know it is on the line in the states.
The Supreme Court recently announced it would take up Moore v. Harper — a case that could open the door for rightwing state lawmakers to ignore their executive and judicial branches — and their own voters — when awarding presidential electors in 2024. Four Justices have indicated support for this fringe theory — Amy Coney Barrett’s vote will be the deciding factor.
Ensuring pro-democracy state lawmakers hold critical majorities before 2024 presidential electors are submitted is the surest way to protect our democracy.
Competitive state legislative campaigns usually cost just 3% of a competitive federal campaign. So, you can help protect our democracy for a fraction of the cost of flipping Congress.
But with hundreds of races, it can feel impossible to determine how to make the biggest impact with your donation. That’s why, alongside Data for Progress, I created Give Smart.
We use a combination of district-level modeling, electoral and demographic information, and the latest on-the-ground intelligence about campaigns to find the state legislative races where your donations go furthest to flip or defend majorities. And 100% of your donations go directly to the candidates.
Give Smart's track record speaks for itself. We’ve helped win 47 races, flip five legislative chambers and break three supermajorities. 75% of the campaigns we select are in single-digit races, and more than half were in elections that were decided by 5% or less.
We’re currently focused on three states where individual donors can make the biggest difference: Arizona, Michigan, and Maine. In 2022, their entire legislatures are up for election, and their new legislative maps offer a path forward to shift or defend power.
And because we believe in giving donors power, we’re offering several donation opportunities.
The first is our revolving featured slate of endorsees, which we’ve built based on our deep knowledge of these states and campaigns. You can trust that your dollars will go the furthest in these races at any given moment.
We’ve also created state-specific slates — empowering you to choose the states and chambers you want while ensuring your dollars are fueling the most critical races. Just click on the state or chamber you’re interested in, and you’ll find our entire slate of candidates running in the closest districts.
Our democracy is on the line in the states this November. But with focused, strategic, data-driven donations, we can defend our votes, our freedoms, and our future. So if you’re going to give, I hope you’ll Give Smart.
About the author: Aaron Kleinman is the Director of Research at The States Project, whose electoral work focuses on winning governing majorities in the states by making state legislative campaigns more effective and better-funded. They do it because The States Project believes that state legislatures are the strongest force for change in this country.