The correct answer, of course, is all of them.
When we start talking about prioritizing races, a lot Twitter Dems turn into Howard Dean and give you a lecture about the neglected importance winning up and down the ballot. This is a fantastic mindset when you turns into supporting a fantastic group like Run for Something or the States Project. But it gets super messy when people to use it to, for instance, make the case for wasting tens of millions of dollars to lose to Marjorie Taylor Greene or Mitch McConnell by triple-digits.
The reality is every race matters. But some like MTG’s, where Democratic challenger will raise almost as much as Michael Dukakis did to run for president in 1988, will get far too much money and attention. And far too many won’t get nearly enough.
This blog/project is about using our collective wits to focus people’s time and energy on the right races and the right candidates. Because, unfortunately, there is no simple way for most people to do this. And as a result, we end up getting dragged around by our emotions while flushing shipping containers of cash into the bidets of useless consultants.
If you follow me at all, you know that I believe Michigan is the state everyone should watch and follow in 2022. I made the case for John Stoehr’s Editorial Board:
Thanks to our new fair maps, Democrats have a chance to win back the state Senate for the first time since 1984 along with the state House, which has been in GOP hands most of the last decade.
This would not only give Governor Gretchen Whitmer a chance to actually govern in 2023, it would prevent what is shaping up as the GOP’s plan to steal key swing states in 2024 by using gerrymandered legislatures to overrule voters.
Increased voting rights and fair maps are the simplest way to fight back at the attrition of democracy that made Trump possible. And to be fair, I have to note that Michigan has a huge advantage in achieving these goals over many states, including our fellow bricks in the Blue Wall – Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Pennsylvanians need the state legislature to approve a measure before it can go on their ballot. And the GOP-controlled, gerrymandered-for-their-pleasure state House in the Keystone State will never do anything like that to risk their power or ability to help elect Trump or a Trump impersonator.
In Wisconsin, you need the measure to pass two consecutive legislatures to pass a ballot measure that would modify the state Constitution. Something that will never happen because the state is, at this point, barely a democracy.
But Michigan’s unique ability to fight for democracy makes it more important to the rest of the nation, not less.
If Michigan’s Reproductive Freedom for All passes in the nation’s third most important swing state with nearly two-thirds of voters supporting it, as I imagine it will, this will send a message to the aspiring fascists everywhere.
Michigan’s Senate is Democrats best chance of flipping a state house in the nation, according Larry Sabato’s pendulous Crystal Ball.
Flipping this house would enormously consequential. And it’s relatively cheap.
And our Twitter pal UMichVoter has made it embarrassingly easy to support Democrats in seven races that are mostly likely to help us pick up the three seats needed to put Republicans in the minority.
This is my case for why the Michigan Senate is the single most important “race” in 2022, even if it’s a bunch of races.
So what’s your pick for the most important race? Any why? Post your comment here.
Or reply to this tweet:
If I buy your take, I’ll follow up and do my best to make sure others hear you doing your best Paul Revere impression.
Map via The Cook Political Report.